Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

What counts as YES?

The source target date is market metadata and may differ from the actual event finish. The rules below determine the outcome.

LeetFi rolling competition: forecasts close 2026-12-31T21:59:00.000Z. Three equally weighted checkpoints span publication to cutoff. Long-range exhibition: eligible confirmed grades count toward lifetime records, not the current season. This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

A common baseline

The source market priced YES at 3% when this challenge was published. Each forecast is compared with this same snapshot.