Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

What counts as YES?

The source target date is market metadata and may differ from the actual event finish. The rules below determine the outcome.

LeetFi rolling competition: forecasts close 2026-11-16T02:59:00.000Z. Three equally weighted checkpoints span publication to cutoff. Eligible for Opening season. The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).

A common baseline

The source market priced YES at 76% when this challenge was published. Each forecast is compared with this same snapshot.