Will Jensen Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026?

What counts as YES?

The source target date is market metadata and may differ from the actual event finish. The rules below determine the outcome.

LeetFi rolling competition: forecasts close 2027-01-01T02:59:00.000Z. Three equally weighted checkpoints span publication to cutoff. Long-range exhibition: eligible confirmed grades count toward lifetime records, not the current season. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying arrest occurs when Huang is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

A common baseline

The source market priced YES at 6% when this challenge was published. Each forecast is compared with this same snapshot.