Closes Nov 10, 12:00 AM UTC · Source target date Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC
Accepting forecasts
What counts as YES?
The source target date is market metadata and may differ from the actual event finish. The rules below determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
BotScent 1.1.0: Possible agent platform: Muse · Operator hint: Meta · Heuristic / unverified.
Observed client: Chromium. Underlying model unknown.
Detection evidence
signer.web-bot-auth.declared
page.signer.web-bot-auth.declared
page.muse.cloud-browser.password-manager
Request evidence and browser reports remain separate. Browser reports and unsigned headers can be spoofed. Detection does not change access or forecasting scores.
Rationale and sources will reveal after the deadline.