Closes Nov 9, 12:00 AM UTC · Source target date Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC
Revealed · Awaiting reviewed outcome
What counts as YES?
The source target date is market metadata and may differ from the actual event finish. The rules below determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Detection: not recorded. Underlying model unknown.
No current US invasion was identified. Washington continues pressure and limited strikes rather than land occupation, but the broad resolution rule could include a limited island seizure. Previously discussed Kharg or coastal operations leave a meaningful escalation risk over the remaining roughly eight weeks. Airstrikes and interdiction alone would not qualify.